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Neighborhood · Middletown, OH

Downtown Eviction Risk: Elevated

4 census tracts · pop 12,201 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.2/10 · range 6.0–6.8

Downtown is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Middletown with 4 census tracts and a population of 12,201 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 6.2/10 (Elevated tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 53% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 19% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Median gross rent of $971/month sits 4% lower than the Middletown citywide median ($1,007).

Risk score
6.2
Elevated
4 tracts · population-weighted
Downtown vs Middletown How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
52.6% +69%
Middletown: 31.1%
Average gross rent
$971 -4%
Middletown: $1,007
Average HH income
$47,642 -13%
Middletown: $54,985
Poverty rate
22.4% +18%
Middletown: 19.0%
Renter share
50.1% +9%
Middletown: 46.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Downtown and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 6.0–6.8

Why Downtown scores 6.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.4–2.4 across tracts
2.4
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 3.8–3.8 across tracts
3.8
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 4.1–4.1 across tracts
4.1
Rent control risk
53% of income on rent · Range 6.4–6.4 across tracts
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.7–2.7 across tracts
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
50% renter households · Range 8.8–8.8 across tracts
8.8
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Economic stress
22.4% below poverty line · Range 3.4–10.0 across tracts
5.3
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–5.0 across tracts
2.6
Risk score comparison

Downtown vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Downtown score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Downtown: 6.26.2DowntownNeighborhoodParent city: 5.55.5Parent cityhost cityState: 5.05.0Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.35.3U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Downtown?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square — click to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 0.8 points from 6.0 to 6.8. Tracts are relatively uniform — conditions feel similar throughout the neighborhood.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

4 tracts in Downtown

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
39017014400 6.8 2,206 60% $692
39017012700 6.2 3,388 62% $1,293
39017013200 6.1 3,409 49% $953
39017012200 6.0 3,198 41% $840
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 62

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 82%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 62%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 30%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 38%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Downtown

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 4,540Total filings (sum)
  • 13.85%Avg annual filing rate
  • 23.5%Peak year (2017)
  • 14.44%Latest filed (2018)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Downtown

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Downtown

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Downtown?

Downtown scores 6.2/10 (Elevated tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

Q2

How does Downtown compare to Middletown overall?

Downtown scores 0.7 points higher than Middletown overall (5.5/10). Renters spend 53% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Median rent: $971 vs $1,007.

Q3

What is the average rent in Downtown?

Median gross rent in Downtown is $971/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.

Q4

What percentage of Downtown residents are renters?

50% of Downtown households are renter-occupied (vs 46% in Middletown). The neighborhood has 12,201 residents.

Q5

Is Downtown a high social-vulnerability area?

Downtown sits in the 62th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Q6

Which tracts in Downtown have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Downtown is census tract 39017014400 (score 6.8/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.0 to 6.8 — a spread of 0.8 points.

Q7

How safe is Downtown for landlords?

Downtown carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.2/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Middletown as a whole (5.5/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Downtown?

Downtown has 11,826 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (75.4%), Hispanic / Latino (10%), Black (non-Hispanic) (9.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Downtown

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Middletown

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Downtown.

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