4 census tracts · pop 12,201 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.4/10
· range 5.1–5.6
Downtown spans 4 census tracts of Middletown, OH, population 12,201. Scored across those inputs it reaches 5.4/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. Against a Middletown baseline of 31.1%, about half of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10. 19% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 2.6/10.
Filings are well documented here: 4,540 across 4 observed tracts. Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.7/10. SNAP participation is 23.6% of households versus 15.2% nationally.
The worst year on record was 2017, when filings touched 23.5% of renter households. Recent filings have not receded much: 14.3% in 2018 against a 23.5% peak.
The closest comparables inside the same city are South Main Street Historic District and Rosedale / The Oaks. The 4 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.5 points apart at the extremes.
Average gross rent runs $971, close to the Middletown average. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $47,642.
50% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
With little internal variation, 5.4/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
4 tracts · population-weighted
Downtown vs MiddletownHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority30%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport38%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Downtown
Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
4,540Total filings (sum)
13.85%Avg annual filing rate
23.5%Peak year (2017)
14.44%Latest filed (2018)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Downtown
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
17.5%Housing insecurity
13.4%Utility shutoff threat
23.6%Food insecurity
22.2%SNAP enrollment
11.7%No health insurance
34.6%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Downtown
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Downtown?
Downtown scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Downtown compare to Middletown overall?
Downtown scores 1.2 points higher than Middletown overall (4.2/10). Renters spend 53% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $971 vs $1,007.
Q3
What is the average rent in Downtown?
Average gross rent in Downtown is $971/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Downtown residents are renters?
50% of Downtown households are renter-occupied (vs 46% in Middletown). The neighborhood has 12,201 residents.
Q5
Is Downtown a high social-vulnerability area?
Downtown sits in the 62nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Downtown have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Downtown is census tract 39017012200 (score 5.6/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.1 to 5.6, a spread of 0.5 points.
Q7
How safe is Downtown for landlords?
Downtown carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.4/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Middletown as a whole (4.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Downtown?
Downtown has 11,826 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (75.4%), Hispanic / Latino (10%), Black (non-Hispanic) (9.2%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
