South Main Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 30%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 8.8/10. The poverty rate is 35%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

Sitting well above the midpoint is economic stress at 8.7/10. 18.7% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 23.9% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

Court records carry 1,483 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. Well under the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.7/10.

The worst year on record was 2018, when filings touched 20.2% of renter households. At $1,074 a month, rents sit 7% over what the rest of Middletown commands. Judgments average 10.4% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.

For a like-for-like read, Downtown and Rosedale / The Oaks score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

With little internal variation, 5.6/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.