Neighborhood · Middletown, OH

South Main Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

2 census tracts · pop 3,970 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.2/10 · range 5.1–5.3

South Main Street Historic District is a white-black neighborhood in Middletown with 2 census tracts and a population of 3,970 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.2/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 44% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 30% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,074/month sits 7% higher than the Middletown citywide average ($1,007).

Risk score

5.2

Moderate

2 tracts · population-weighted

South Main Street Historic District vs Middletown How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

43.6% +40%

Middletown: 31.1%

Average gross rent

$1,074 +7%

Middletown: $1,007

Average HH income

$48,083 -13%

Middletown: $54,985

Poverty rate

34.6% +82%

Middletown: 19.0%

Renter share

61.9% +35%

Middletown: 46.0%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across South Main Street Historic District and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 5.1–5.3

Why South Main Street Historic District scores 5.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.4–2.4 across tracts

2.4

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 3.8–3.8 across tracts

3.8

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 4.1–4.1 across tracts

4.1

Rent control risk

44% of income on rent · Range 6.4–6.4 across tracts

6.4

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.7–2.7 across tracts

2.7

Tenant organizing strength

62% renter households · Range 8.8–8.8 across tracts

8.8

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts

7.1

Economic stress

34.6% below poverty line · Range 7.8–9.3 across tracts

8.7

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 3.2–3.4 across tracts

3.3

Risk score comparison

South Main Street Historic District vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

2 tracts in South Main Street Historic District

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
39017013100	5.3	2,260	50%	$1,084
39017013000	5.1	1,710	35%	$1,061

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 82

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 83%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 96%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 67%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 40%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in South Main Street Historic District

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

1,483Total filings (sum)
14.00%Avg annual filing rate
20.2%Peak year (2018)
19.57%Latest filed (2018)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in South Main Street Historic District

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

24.1%Housing insecurity
18.9%Utility shutoff threat
32.5%Food insecurity
31.7%SNAP enrollment
13.8%No health insurance
38.0%Any disability

Frequently asked

About South Main Street Historic District

What is the eviction-risk score for South Main Street Historic District?

South Main Street Historic District scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does South Main Street Historic District compare to Middletown overall?

South Main Street Historic District scores 2.4 points higher than Middletown overall (2.8/10). Renters spend 44% of income on rent vs 31% citywide. Average rent: $1,074 vs $1,007.

What is the average rent in South Main Street Historic District?

Average gross rent in South Main Street Historic District is $1,074/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of South Main Street Historic District residents are renters?

62% of South Main Street Historic District households are renter-occupied (vs 46% in Middletown). The neighborhood has 3,970 residents.

Is South Main Street Historic District a high social-vulnerability area?

South Main Street Historic District sits in the 82nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in South Main Street Historic District have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in South Main Street Historic District is census tract 39017013100 (score 5.3/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.1 to 5.3, a spread of 0.2 points.

How safe is South Main Street Historic District for landlords?

South Main Street Historic District carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.2/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Middletown as a whole (2.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of South Main Street Historic District?

South Main Street Historic District has 4,162 residents (White-Black Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (44.7%), Black (non-Hispanic) (33.3%), Other / Multiracial (18.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near South Main Street Historic District

4.7 Downtown 4 tracts · pop 12,201 3.5 Rosedale / The Oaks 4 tracts · pop 12,128 3.7 Grand View 2 tracts · pop 10,723 5.5 Dayton-Campbell Historic District 4 tracts · pop 17,058 4.1 Main Street Historic District 2 tracts · pop 8,679 4.4 Lindenwald 2 tracts · pop 9,088

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Middletown

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to South Main Street Historic District.

4.6 Downtown 4 tracts · pop 12,201 3.3 Rosedale / The Oaks 4 tracts · pop 12,128

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