Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Bush Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095001900 · Lucas County, OH · pop 1,394 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
39095001900 is a census tract in the Bush Street Historic District area of Toledo, OH. It scores 5.4/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,394. Severe burden reaches 50%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 34%
Tract context
Occupied units700
Renter share65.1%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate47.1%
Median income$24,011
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6739, -83.5244 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bush Street Historic District scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
47.1% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$720 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Bush Street Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 87%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 35%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 1%Grade C
- 56%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 536Total filings over 15 yrs
- 10.74%Avg annual filing rate
- 14.0%Peak (2003)
- 24Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 50% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bush Street Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 32.3%Housing insecurity
- 27.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 44.1%Food insecurity
- 47.1%SNAP enrollment
- 21.4%Transit barriers
- 16.4%No health insurance
- 22.1%Frequent mental distress
- 43.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bush Street Historic District
What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. SNAP participation runs 47.1% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 47%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 27.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $24,011, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. This is renter territory: 65% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Cost burden runs 50% here against 41.3% across Lucas County. At $720 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of Toledo commands.
It sits 1.2 points above the Lucas County average of 4.2. The filing record is not thin: 536 evictions over 15 years of observation.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095001900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095001900?
Census tract 39095001900 in the Bush Street Historic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095001900?
Median gross rent is $720/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095001900?
47.1% of residents in tract 39095001900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,394.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095001900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 87th, minority 74th, housing 35th.
Q5
Is tract 39095001900 considered part of Bush Street Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095001900 fall within Bush Street Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095001900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 536 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095001900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.74% of renter households, peaking at 14.0% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095001900 struggle to pay rent?
About 32.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 27.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095001900 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095001900 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095001900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 56% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Roosevelt
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
39095007306
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Homeville
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Northriver
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Uptown
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Southwyck
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Downtown
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Inverness Village
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Related