Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally
Bush Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095003000 · Lucas County, OH · pop 2,005 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Tract 39095003000, home to 2,005 residents in the Bush Street Historic District neighborhood of Toledo, scores 6.3/10 for landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #15,094 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 55% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $464 a month against an average household income of $17,634 a year, roughly 32% of income at the averages. About 61% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units873
Renter share61.1%
SVI overall0.98
Poverty rate62.5%
Median income$17,634
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
94
th percentile
Very High
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6635, -83.5212 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bush Street Historic District scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
62.5% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$464 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Bush Street Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 98
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 87%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 53%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,152Total filings over 15 yrs
- 12.17%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.5%Peak (2013)
- 58Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 15 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bush Street Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 34.4%Housing insecurity
- 30.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 50.4%Food insecurity
- 56.3%SNAP enrollment
- 25.8%Transit barriers
- 20.4%No health insurance
- 25.3%Frequent mental distress
- 51.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bush Street Historic District
What moves this score most is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Toledo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lucas County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 34.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 30.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095003000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095003000?
Census tract 39095003000 in the Bush Street Historic District neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095003000?
Median gross rent is $464/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095003000?
62.5% of residents in tract 39095003000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,005.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095003000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 97th, minority 74th, housing 87th.
Q5
Is tract 39095003000 considered part of Bush Street Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095003000 fall within Bush Street Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095003000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,152 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095003000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.17% of renter households, peaking at 16.5% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095003000 struggle to pay rent?
About 34.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095003000 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095003000 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095003000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Northriver
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
East Toledo
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
McComas Village
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Warren-Sherman
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Birckhead Place
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
River East
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Northlawn
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
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