Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,926 of 84,120 nationally
Crandall Park South Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Youngstown
Tract 39099804100 · Mahoning County, OH · pop 1,475 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 39099804100 (the Crandall Park South Historic District area of Youngstown, Ohio) comes in at 6.4/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 84th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 48% of renter households, a severe level, and 34% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $851 a month while the average household earns $39,720 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units557
Renter share51.7%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate20.4%
Median income$39,720
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
23
th percentile
Low
Within county
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
79
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Youngstown and the region
Centroid at 41.1214, -80.6580 · click any tract to drill in
Why Crandall Park South Historic District scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Youngstown
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
20.4% poverty · this tract
5.1
Supply constraint
$851 rent vs county FMR
4.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Youngstown
7.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Youngstown
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Youngstown
8.6
How Crandall Park South Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 47%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 100%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 18%Grade A
- 53%Grade B
- 20%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 61Total filings over 7 yrs
- 3.60%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.1%Peak (2016)
- 13Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 225% over the past 7 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.0%Housing insecurity
- 19.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.4%Food insecurity
- 34.4%SNAP enrollment
- 16.3%Transit barriers
- 12.3%No health insurance
- 18.2%Frequent mental distress
- 45.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Crandall Park South Historic District
The heaviest input here is housing court bias at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Youngstown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Mahoning County average of 5.8 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 91st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 39099804100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39099804100?
Census tract 39099804100 in the Crandall Park South Historic District neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39099804100?
Median gross rent is $851/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39099804100?
20.4% of residents in tract 39099804100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,475.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39099804100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 47th, minority 75th, housing 100th.
Q5
Is tract 39099804100 considered part of Crandall Park South Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39099804100 fall within Crandall Park South Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39099804100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 61 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 39099804100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.60% of renter households, peaking at 4.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39099804100 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39099804100 compare to Youngstown overall?
Tract 39099804100 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Youngstown at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Youngstown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39099804100 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Youngstown
Top eight tracts in Youngstown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Stambaugh Heights
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Lansdowne
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Wick Park Historic District
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Buckeye Plat
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
La La Land
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Cottage Grove
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Bryn Mawr
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Arlington Heights
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Related