Hope Valley Eviction Risk: Moderate

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 9.8/10. 99% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The poverty rate is 39%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Severe burden reaches 29%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. 23.9% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10.

Set annual rent against average household income of $31,765 and the ratio lands at 32%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 28.5% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. At $848 a month, rents sit 19% under what the rest of Tulsa commands.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.2/10. Among the 117 mapped neighborhoods of Tulsa, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. The closest comparables inside the same city are South Nogales and University Park.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 4.8/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.