1st Ward Eviction Risk: Elevated

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. 73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. Pulling the other way is supply constraint, at 2.9/10.

The filing record is not thin: 278 evictions logged in this tract. The poverty rate is 17%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 16.2% of renter households. Average gross rent is $1,189, 10% below the Allentown average of $1,317. Recent filings have not receded much: 14.3% in 2006 against a 16.2% peak.

That places it #1 of 26 neighborhoods in Allentown. For a like-for-like read, Center City and Union Terrace score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $45,788.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 6.6/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.