Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally

Shadow Mountain Eviction Risk: Moderate , Flagstaff

Tract 04005000301 · Coconino, AZ · pop 3,542 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Tract 04005000301 sits in the Shadow Mountain area of Flagstaff eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10. Population here is 3,542. 38% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

4.8

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 30% Stable renters 34% Owners 36%

Tract context

Occupied units1,346

Renter share63.5%

SVI overall0.90

Poverty rate19.2%

Median income$64,871

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Flagstaff and the region

Centroid at 35.2218, -111.6227 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shadow Mountain scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Flagstaff

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.2

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

19.2% poverty · this tract

4.8

Supply constraint

$1,155 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Flagstaff

3.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Flagstaff

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Flagstaff

5.5

How Shadow Mountain compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 90

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

73%Socioeconomic
64%Household composition
76%Racial/ethnic minority
99%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.7%Housing insecurity
10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
18.7%Food insecurity
14.1%SNAP enrollment
10.9%Transit barriers
12.9%No health insurance
17.6%Frequent mental distress
29.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shadow Mountain

Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10. At $1,155 a month, rents run 30% under what the rest of Flagstaff commands. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8/10.

Cost burden runs 47% here against 40.0% across Coconino County. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 0.8 points above the Coconino County average of 4.0. Nationally it ranks #35,669 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.1/10. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $64,871. 64% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04005000301

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04005000301?

Census tract 04005000301 in the Shadow Mountain neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04005000301?

Median gross rent is $1,155/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04005000301?

19.2% of residents in tract 04005000301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,542.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04005000301?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 64th, minority 76th, housing 99th.

Is tract 04005000301 considered part of Shadow Mountain?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04005000301 fall within Shadow Mountain (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04005000301 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04005000301 compare to Flagstaff overall?

Tract 04005000301 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Flagstaff at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Flagstaff eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Flagstaff

Top eight tracts in Flagstaff ranked by composite eviction-risk score.