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Neighborhood · Flagstaff, AZ

Shadow Mountain Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 3,542 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.8/10 · range 4.8–4.8

Shadow Mountain maps to a single census tract in Flagstaff, AZ, population 3,542. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.8/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. Severe burden reaches 38%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

Against a Flagstaff baseline of 34.6%, 47% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 1/10.

At $1,155 a month, rents sit 30% under what the rest of Flagstaff commands. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 3/10.

Among the 17 mapped neighborhoods of Flagstaff, it ranks #6 by risk, the middle third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Sunnyside and Flagstaff Industrial Park.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $64,871.

64% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 4.8/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
4.8
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Shadow Mountain vs Flagstaff How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
46.9% +36%
Flagstaff: 34.6%
Average gross rent
$1,155 -30%
Flagstaff: $1,645
Average HH income
$64,871 -5%
Flagstaff: $68,041
Poverty rate
19.2% -1%
Flagstaff: 19.4%
Renter share
63.5% +10%
Flagstaff: 57.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Shadow Mountain and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 4.8–4.8

Why Shadow Mountain scores 4.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.2–6.2 across tracts
6.2
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts
8.0
Rent control risk
47% of income on rent · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
64% renter households · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts
6.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Economic stress
19.2% below poverty line · Range 4.8–4.8 across tracts
4.8
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Risk score comparison

Shadow Mountain vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Shadow Mountain score vs. parent city, state, U.S.4.8Shadow MountainNeighborhood4.5Parent cityhost city3.6Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Shadow Mountain

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕ Score↕ Pop↕ % over 30% on rent↕ Average rent↕
04005000301 4.8 3,542 47% $1,155
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 90

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 73%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 64%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 99%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Shadow Mountain

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Shadow Mountain

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Shadow Mountain?

Shadow Mountain scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Shadow Mountain compare to Flagstaff overall?

Shadow Mountain scores 0.3 points higher than Flagstaff overall (4.5/10). Renters spend 47% of income on rent vs 35% citywide. Average rent: $1,155 vs $1,645.
Q3

What is the average rent in Shadow Mountain?

Average gross rent in Shadow Mountain is $1,155/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Shadow Mountain residents are renters?

64% of Shadow Mountain households are renter-occupied (vs 58% in Flagstaff). The neighborhood has 3,542 residents.
Q5

Is Shadow Mountain a high social-vulnerability area?

Shadow Mountain sits in the 90th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Shadow Mountain for landlords?

Shadow Mountain carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.8/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Flagstaff as a whole (4.5/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Shadow Mountain?

Shadow Mountain has 3,681 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (36.2%), Other / Multiracial (33%), Hispanic / Latino (30.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Flagstaff

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Shadow Mountain.

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