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Neighborhood · Flagstaff, AZ

Shadow Mountain Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 3,542 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.8/10 · range 4.8–4.8

Shadow Mountain maps to a single census tract in Flagstaff, AZ, population 3,542. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.8/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. Severe burden reaches 38%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

Against a Flagstaff baseline of 34.6%, 47% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 1/10.

At $1,155 a month, rents sit 30% under what the rest of Flagstaff commands. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 3/10.

Among the 17 mapped neighborhoods of Flagstaff, it ranks #6 by risk, the middle third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Sunnyside and Flagstaff Industrial Park.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $64,871.

64% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 4.8/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score
4.8
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Shadow Mountain vs Flagstaff How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
46.9% +36%
Flagstaff: 34.6%
Average gross rent
$1,155 -30%
Flagstaff: $1,645
Average HH income
$64,871 -5%
Flagstaff: $68,041
Poverty rate
19.2% -1%
Flagstaff: 19.4%
Renter share
63.5% +10%
Flagstaff: 57.7%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Shadow Mountain and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 4.8–4.8

Why Shadow Mountain scores 4.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 6.2–6.2 across tracts
6.2
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.0–8.0 across tracts
8.0
Rent control risk
47% of income on rent · Range 3.0–3.0 across tracts
3.0
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
64% renter households · Range 6.5–6.5 across tracts
6.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts
5.5
Economic stress
19.2% below poverty line · Range 4.8–4.8 across tracts
4.8
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Risk score comparison

Shadow Mountain vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Shadow Mountain score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Shadow Mountain: 4.84.8Shadow MountainNeighborhoodParent city: 4.54.5Parent cityhost cityState: 3.63.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Shadow Mountain

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04005000301 4.8 3,542 47% $1,155
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 90

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 73%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 64%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 99%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Shadow Mountain

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Shadow Mountain

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Shadow Mountain?

Shadow Mountain scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Shadow Mountain compare to Flagstaff overall?

Shadow Mountain scores 0.3 points higher than Flagstaff overall (4.5/10). Renters spend 47% of income on rent vs 35% citywide. Average rent: $1,155 vs $1,645.
Q3

What is the average rent in Shadow Mountain?

Average gross rent in Shadow Mountain is $1,155/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Shadow Mountain residents are renters?

64% of Shadow Mountain households are renter-occupied (vs 58% in Flagstaff). The neighborhood has 3,542 residents.
Q5

Is Shadow Mountain a high social-vulnerability area?

Shadow Mountain sits in the 90th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Shadow Mountain for landlords?

Shadow Mountain carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.8/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Flagstaff as a whole (4.5/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Shadow Mountain?

Shadow Mountain has 3,681 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (36.2%), Other / Multiracial (33%), Hispanic / Latino (30.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Flagstaff

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Shadow Mountain.

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