Neighborhood · Ranked #57,812 of 84,120 nationally

Elk Run Eviction Risk: Lower , Flagstaff

Tract 04005000601 · Coconino, AZ · pop 2,384 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Tract 04005000601 sits in the Elk Run area of Flagstaff eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.5/10. Population here is 2,384. At $2,588 a month, rents run 57% over what the rest of Flagstaff commands.

Risk score

3.5

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 17% Owners 70%

Tract context

Occupied units893

Renter share30.3%

SVI overall0.23

Poverty rate12.1%

Median income$91,761

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Flagstaff and the region

Centroid at 35.1996, -111.5857 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elk Run scores 3.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Flagstaff

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.2

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

12.1% poverty · this tract

3.0

Supply constraint

$2,588 rent vs county FMR

8.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Flagstaff

3.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Flagstaff

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Flagstaff

5.5

How Elk Run compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 23

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

33%Socioeconomic
9%Household composition
15%Racial/ethnic minority
46%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.6%Housing insecurity
5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
10.2%Food insecurity
8.3%SNAP enrollment
6.3%Transit barriers
7.0%No health insurance
13.9%Frequent mental distress
28.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elk Run

The voucher gap is 33.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The dominant input is supply constraint at 8.3/10. Set annual rent against average income of $91,761 and the ratio lands at 34%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8/10. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

Food insecurity runs 10.2% against 17.8% nationally. Nationally it ranks #57,812 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3/10.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. 43% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04005000601

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04005000601?

Census tract 04005000601 in the Elk Run neighborhood scores 3.5/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04005000601?

Median gross rent is $2,588/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04005000601?

12.1% of residents in tract 04005000601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,384.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04005000601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 23th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 33th, household 9th, minority 15th, housing 46th.

Is tract 04005000601 considered part of Elk Run?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04005000601 fall within Elk Run (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04005000601 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04005000601 compare to Flagstaff overall?

Tract 04005000601 scores 3.5/10, lower than the parent city of Flagstaff at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Flagstaff eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Flagstaff

Top eight tracts in Flagstaff ranked by composite eviction-risk score.