Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,956 of 84,120 nationally
Forest Springs Neighborhood Eviction Risk: Moderate , Flagstaff
Tract 04005000700 · Coconino, AZ · pop 4,667 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 04005000700 sits in the Forest Springs Neighborhood area of Flagstaff eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4/10. It is home to 4,667 residents. Severe burden reaches 31%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units1,693
Renter share54.3%
SVI overall0.58
Poverty rate15.6%
Median income$81,243
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
41
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Flagstaff and the region
Centroid at 35.1951, -111.6069 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forest Springs Neighborhood scores 4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Flagstaff
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
15.6% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$1,878 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Flagstaff
3.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Flagstaff
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Flagstaff
5.5
How Forest Springs Neighborhood compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 58
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 83%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 23Total filings over 1 yrs
- 5.00%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.0%Peak (2004)
- 23Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.4%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.3%Food insecurity
- 8.8%SNAP enrollment
- 7.9%Transit barriers
- 8.6%No health insurance
- 17.1%Frequent mental distress
- 24.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Forest Springs Neighborhood
The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 23 evictions over 1 years of observation. Average gross rent is $1,878, 14% above the Flagstaff average.
Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 3/10. Filings peaked in 2004 at 5.0% of renter households.
In a typical year about 5.0% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #48,956 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.2/10.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. 43% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04005000700
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04005000700?
Census tract 04005000700 in the Forest Springs Neighborhood neighborhood scores 4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04005000700?
Median gross rent is $1,878/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04005000700?
15.6% of residents in tract 04005000700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,667.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04005000700?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 56th, minority 61th, housing 83th.
Q5
Is tract 04005000700 considered part of Forest Springs Neighborhood?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04005000700 fall within Forest Springs Neighborhood (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04005000700?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 23 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 04005000700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.00% of renter households, peaking at 5.0% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04005000700 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04005000700 compare to Flagstaff overall?
Tract 04005000700 scores 4/10, lower than the parent city of Flagstaff at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Flagstaff eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Flagstaff
Top eight tracts in Flagstaff ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Rio Homes
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Pine Canyon
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Pine Knoll
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Presidio in the Pines
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · AZ
Sunnyside
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Shadow Mountain
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flagstaff Industrial Park
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04005980200
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
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