Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally

Ponderosa Trails Eviction Risk: Lower , Flagstaff

Tract 04005000901 · Coconino, AZ · pop 4,738 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Tract 04005000901 sits in the Ponderosa Trails area of Flagstaff eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.1/10. It is home to 4,738 residents. The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

3.1

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 21% Owners 59%

Tract context

Occupied units1,827

Renter share41.1%

SVI overall0.16

Poverty rate8.0%

Median income$103,805

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Flagstaff and the region

Centroid at 35.1426, -111.6697 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ponderosa Trails scores 3.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Flagstaff

8.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.2

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

8.0% poverty · this tract

2.0

Supply constraint

$1,766 rent vs county FMR

4.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Flagstaff

3.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Flagstaff

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Flagstaff

5.5

How Ponderosa Trails compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 16

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

28%Socioeconomic
6%Household composition
53%Racial/ethnic minority
23%Housing & transportation

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.0%Housing insecurity
5.3%Utility-shutoff threat
8.4%Food insecurity
5.4%SNAP enrollment
6.0%Transit barriers
6.4%No health insurance
15.7%Frequent mental distress
20.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ponderosa Trails

The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 2/10. Cost burden runs about half here against 40.0% across Coconino County.

Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. SNAP participation runs 5.4% against 15.2% nationally.

Food insecurity runs 8.4% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Coconino County average of 4.0, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. On the national scale it lands near the 22nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Social vulnerability reads 2.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent is $1,766, close to the Flagstaff average.

Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $103,805.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04005000901

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04005000901?

Census tract 04005000901 in the Ponderosa Trails neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04005000901?

Median gross rent is $1,766/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04005000901?

8.0% of residents in tract 04005000901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,738.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04005000901?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 16th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 6th, minority 53th, housing 23th.

Is tract 04005000901 considered part of Ponderosa Trails?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04005000901 fall within Ponderosa Trails (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04005000901 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04005000901 compare to Flagstaff overall?

Tract 04005000901 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Flagstaff at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Flagstaff eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Flagstaff

Top eight tracts in Flagstaff ranked by composite eviction-risk score.