Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn Eviction Risk: Moderate , Phoenix

Tract 04013113503 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,826 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

With a score of 4.9/10, tract 04013113503 in the El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn area of Phoenix, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Food insecurity runs 38.4% against 17.8% nationally.

Risk score

4.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 40% Owners 32%

Tract context

Occupied units1,384

Renter share67.3%

SVI overall0.96

Poverty rate17.5%

Median income$64,527

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Phoenix and the region

Centroid at 33.4629, -112.0241 · click any tract to drill in

Why El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Phoenix

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.1

State political climate

Arizona legislature & governorship

2.2

Economic stress

17.5% poverty · this tract

4.4

Supply constraint

$1,247 rent vs county FMR

1.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Phoenix

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Phoenix

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Phoenix

3.0

How El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

84%Socioeconomic
73%Household composition
89%Racial/ethnic minority
99%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
18%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

27.1%Housing insecurity
14.6%Utility-shutoff threat
38.4%Food insecurity
28.8%SNAP enrollment
18.3%Transit barriers
32.2%No health insurance
18.6%Frequent mental distress
39.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.4/10. 67% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Average gross rent is $1,247, 21% below the Phoenix average.

It sits 1.2 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 41% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. Nationally it ranks #34,278 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013113503

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013113503?

Census tract 04013113503 in the El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 04013113503?

Median gross rent is $1,247/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013113503?

17.5% of residents in tract 04013113503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,826.

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013113503?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 73th, minority 89th, housing 99th.

Is tract 04013113503 considered part of El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013113503 fall within El Sereno-La Rosa Trailer Inn (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 04013113503 struggle to pay rent?

About 27.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 04013113503 compare to Phoenix overall?

Tract 04013113503 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Phoenix at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 04013113503 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix

Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.