Northside Eviction Risk: High , Berkeley

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. Average gross rent is $3,200, 50% above the Berkeley average. The poverty rate is 47%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.5/10. 58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Alameda County average of 45.5%. Against the Alameda County average of 7.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.1 points.

Running hot, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. The voucher gap is 19.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 100% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.