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Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally

Niguel Shores Eviction Risk: Moderate , Dana Point

Tract 06059042323 · Orange, CA · pop 4,517 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 06059042323 covers part of the Niguel Shores area of Dana Point, CA, and scores 5.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. 41% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 13% Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units2,120
Renter share27.8%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate4.5%
Median income$133,281

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 4 tracts In Niguel Shores
Very Low
Within parent city
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 7 tracts In Dana Point
Very Low
Within county
15 th percentile
Rank, 15th percentileLowHigh
#524 of 613 tracts In Orange
Very Low
Within state
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#7,527 of 9,109 tracts In California
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Dana Point and the region

Centroid at 33.4741, -117.7165 · click any tract to drill in

Why Niguel Shores scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Dana Point
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
4.5% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,766 rent vs county FMR
4.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dana Point
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dana Point
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dana Point
5.9

How Niguel Shores compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Niguel Shores risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.7This tracttract 0423236.9Dana Pointparent city7.0Countyavg tract in county7.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 30

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Niguel Shores. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Niguel Shores

The clearest offset is economic stress at 1.1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.8/10. It sits 1.3 points below the Orange County average of 7.0.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 3.8% against 11.3% nationally.

At $2,766 a month, rents run 11% under what the rest of Dana Point commands. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

On the national scale it lands near the 74th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points cooler.

Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 53% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $133,281.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06059042323

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06059042323?

Census tract 06059042323 in the Niguel Shores neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 06059042323?

Median gross rent is $2,766/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 06059042323?

4.5% of residents in tract 06059042323 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,517.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 06059042323?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 33th, minority 27th, housing 46th.
Q5

Is tract 06059042323 considered part of Niguel Shores?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06059042323 fall within Niguel Shores (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 06059042323 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 06059042323 compare to Dana Point overall?

Tract 06059042323 scores 5.7/10, lower than the parent city of Dana Point at 6.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dana Point; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Dana Point

Top eight tracts in Dana Point ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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