Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Niguel Shores Eviction Risk: Elevated , Dana Point
Tract 06059042338 · Orange, CA · pop 4,914 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
06059042338 is a census tract in the Niguel Shores area of Dana Point, CA. It scores 6.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,914. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 26%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,848
Renter share41.2%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate8.1%
Median income$149,412
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
27
th percentile
Low
Within state
24
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Dana Point and the region
Centroid at 33.4834, -117.7051 · click any tract to drill in
Why Niguel Shores scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Dana Point
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
8.1% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$3,434 rent vs county FMR
6.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Dana Point
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Dana Point
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Dana Point
5.9
How Niguel Shores compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 31%Household composition
- 36%Racial/ethnic minority
- 33%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Niguel Shores. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.2%Housing insecurity
- 4.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.5%Food insecurity
- 6.5%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 4.1%No health insurance
- 15.0%Frequent mental distress
- 25.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Niguel Shores
Cost burden runs 63% here against 51.8% across Orange County. The main counterweight is economic stress at 2/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.8/10.
Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10. The voucher gap is 18.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Food insecurity runs 7.5% against 17.8% nationally.
Against the Orange County average of 7.0, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.9 points. Average gross rent is $3,434, 11% above the Dana Point average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
On the national scale it lands near the 79th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.4 points cooler.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 06059042338
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06059042338?
Census tract 06059042338 in the Niguel Shores neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06059042338?
Median gross rent is $3,434/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06059042338?
8.1% of residents in tract 06059042338 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,914.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06059042338?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 31th, minority 36th, housing 33th.
Q5
Is tract 06059042338 considered part of Niguel Shores?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06059042338 fall within Niguel Shores (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06059042338 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06059042338 compare to Dana Point overall?
Tract 06059042338 scores 6.1/10, lower than the parent city of Dana Point at 6.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Dana Point; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Dana Point
Top eight tracts in Dana Point ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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