Census Tract · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally

Manteca Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06077005122 · San Joaquin, CA · pop 7,781 · 63% of tract blocks fall in Manteca

Tract 06077005122 sits in Manteca, CA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.1/10. It is home to 7,781 residents. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

5.1

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 5% Owners 88%

Tract context

Occupied units2,153

Renter share12.2%

SVI overall0.56

Poverty rate8.3%

Median income$141,125

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Manteca and the region

Centroid at 37.7869, -121.2732 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manteca scores 5.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Manteca

6.1

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

8.3% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$2,332 rent vs county FMR

8.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Manteca

7.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Manteca

6.2

Housing court bias

Inherited from Manteca

6.5

How Manteca compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 56

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

48%Socioeconomic
46%Household composition
84%Racial/ethnic minority
53%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.7%Housing insecurity
6.1%Utility-shutoff threat
14.5%Food insecurity
10.8%SNAP enrollment
7.8%Transit barriers
8.9%No health insurance
15.6%Frequent mental distress
26.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manteca

The voucher gap is 34.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. 61% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the San Joaquin County average of 47.9%.

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 8.4/10. Against the San Joaquin County average of 6.8, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.7 points.

Running cool, economic stress reads 2.1/10. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10.

Average gross rent is $2,332, 13% above the Manteca average. That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.4 points cooler.

Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $141,125.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06077005122

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06077005122?

Census tract 06077005122 in Manteca scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06077005122?

Median gross rent is $2,332/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06077005122?

8.3% of residents in tract 06077005122 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,781.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06077005122?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 46th, minority 84th, housing 53th.

What share of households in tract 06077005122 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06077005122 compare to Manteca overall?

Tract 06077005122 scores 5.1/10, lower than the parent city of Manteca at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manteca; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Manteca

Top eight tracts in Manteca ranked by composite eviction-risk score.