Census Tract · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally

Manteca Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06077005123 · San Joaquin, CA · pop 4,242

Manteca in San Joaquin County anchors census tract 06077005123, which lands at 6.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 83% of US census tracts.

About 57% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,058 a month against an average household income of $98,100 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 51% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

4.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 22% Owners 49%

Tract context

Occupied units1,384

Renter share50.9%

SVI overall0.68

Poverty rate8.4%

Median income$98,100

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Manteca and the region

Centroid at 37.8046, -121.2438 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manteca scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Manteca

6.1

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

8.4% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$2,058 rent vs county FMR

6.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Manteca

7.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Manteca

6.2

Housing court bias

Inherited from Manteca

6.5

How Manteca compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 68

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

52%Socioeconomic
80%Household composition
75%Racial/ethnic minority
61%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.1%Housing insecurity
7.4%Utility-shutoff threat
17.4%Food insecurity
14.0%SNAP enrollment
9.3%Transit barriers
10.5%No health insurance
17.7%Frequent mental distress
30.1%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manteca

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 7.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Manteca, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the San Joaquin County average of 6.2 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 68th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06077005123

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06077005123?

Census tract 06077005123 in Manteca scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06077005123?

Median gross rent is $2,058/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06077005123?

8.4% of residents in tract 06077005123 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,242.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06077005123?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 80th, minority 75th, housing 61th.

What share of households in tract 06077005123 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06077005123 compare to Manteca overall?

Tract 06077005123 scores 4.5/10, lower than the parent city of Manteca at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manteca; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Manteca

Top eight tracts in Manteca ranked by composite eviction-risk score.