Census Tract · Ranked #12,919 of 84,120 nationally

Manteca Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 06077005138 · San Joaquin, CA · pop 2,884 · 94% of tract blocks fall in Manteca

Census tract 06077005138 covers part of Manteca, CA, and scores 7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,884 residents. Annualized rent equals 48% of average household income of $47,601, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Risk score

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 23% Owners 48%

Tract context

Occupied units1,207

Renter share51.6%

SVI overall0.81

Poverty rate6.2%

Median income$47,601

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Manteca and the region

Centroid at 37.7936, -121.1846 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manteca scores 7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Manteca

6.1

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

6.2% poverty · this tract

1.5

Supply constraint

$1,920 rent vs county FMR

6.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Manteca

7.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Manteca

6.2

Housing court bias

Inherited from Manteca

6.5

How Manteca compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 81

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

68%Socioeconomic
93%Household composition
69%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

13.3%Housing insecurity
6.6%Utility-shutoff threat
16.2%Food insecurity
13.2%SNAP enrollment
8.8%Transit barriers
10.8%No health insurance
16.2%Frequent mental distress
34.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manteca

Severe burden reaches 31%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.5/10. Against San Joaquin County at 47.9%, 56% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.6/10. That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. It tracks the San Joaquin County average of 6.8 closely.

Average gross rent is $1,920, close to the Manteca average. 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 06077005138

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06077005138?

Census tract 06077005138 in Manteca scores 7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06077005138?

Median gross rent is $1,920/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06077005138?

6.2% of residents in tract 06077005138 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,884.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06077005138?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 93th, minority 69th, housing 66th.

What share of households in tract 06077005138 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06077005138 compare to Manteca overall?

Tract 06077005138 scores 7/10, higher than the parent city of Manteca at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manteca; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Manteca

Top eight tracts in Manteca ranked by composite eviction-risk score.