Census Tract · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally

Manteca Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06077005138 · San Joaquin, CA · pop 2,884 · 94% of tract blocks fall in Manteca

Here is how census tract 06077005138, in Manteca in San Joaquin County, looks to a landlord: a 6.2/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 2,884. It lands near the 81st percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 56% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 31% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,920 a month while the average household earns $47,601 a year, roughly 48% of income at the averages. About 52% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

5.2

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 23% Owners 48%

Tract context

Occupied units1,207

Renter share51.6%

SVI overall0.81

Poverty rate6.2%

Median income$47,601

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Manteca and the region

Centroid at 37.7936, -121.1846 · click any tract to drill in

Why Manteca scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Manteca

6.1

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

6.2% poverty · this tract

1.5

Supply constraint

$1,920 rent vs county FMR

6.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Manteca

7.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.3

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Manteca

6.2

Housing court bias

Inherited from Manteca

6.5

How Manteca compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 81

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

68%Socioeconomic
93%Household composition
69%Racial/ethnic minority
66%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

13.3%Housing insecurity
6.6%Utility-shutoff threat
16.2%Food insecurity
13.2%SNAP enrollment
8.8%Transit barriers
10.8%No health insurance
16.2%Frequent mental distress
34.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Manteca

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Manteca, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the San Joaquin County average of 6.2 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 81st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 13.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06077005138

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06077005138?

Census tract 06077005138 in Manteca scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06077005138?

Median gross rent is $1,920/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06077005138?

6.2% of residents in tract 06077005138 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,884.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06077005138?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 93th, minority 69th, housing 66th.

What share of households in tract 06077005138 struggle to pay rent?

About 13.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06077005138 compare to Manteca overall?

Tract 06077005138 scores 5.2/10, lower than the parent city of Manteca at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Manteca; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Manteca

Top eight tracts in Manteca ranked by composite eviction-risk score.