Bystrom Eviction Risk: High

The dominant input is economic stress at 9.5/10. This is renter territory: 89% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The poverty rate is 38%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

SNAP participation runs 34.8% against 15.2% nationally. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $32,986, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. It sits 1.6 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5.

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.3/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 10/10.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.