Census Tract · Ranked #7,382 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: High

Tract 06099002100 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 3,427 · 51% of tract blocks fall in Modesto

Census tract 06099002100 covers part of Modesto, CA, and scores 8.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,427 residents. Severe burden reaches 35%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

8.1

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 37% Stable renters 27% Owners 36%

Tract context

Occupied units848

Renter share64.4%

SVI overall0.98

Poverty rate32.5%

Median income$38,315

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6276, -120.9589 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 8.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

32.5% poverty · this tract

8.1

Supply constraint

$1,102 rent vs county FMR

2.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 98

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

96%Socioeconomic
96%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
92%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

32.8%Housing insecurity
19.3%Utility-shutoff threat
43.5%Food insecurity
46.2%SNAP enrollment
22.1%Transit barriers
25.2%No health insurance
23.8%Frequent mental distress
49.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

Average gross rent is $1,102, 35% below the Modesto average. Housing insecurity runs 32.8% against 14.2% nationally. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $38,315, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The poverty rate is 33%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. What pushes it up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.3/10.

Against Stanislaus County at 47.5%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened. Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 8.1/10.

It sits 1.6 points above the Stanislaus County average of 6.5. Adults with no health insurance runs 25.2% against 11.3% nationally. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2/10.

Nationally it ranks #7,382 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099002100

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099002100?

Census tract 06099002100 in Modesto scores 8.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099002100?

Median gross rent is $1,102/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099002100?

32.5% of residents in tract 06099002100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,427.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099002100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 98th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 96th, minority 83th, housing 92th.

What share of households in tract 06099002100 struggle to pay rent?

About 32.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099002100 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099002100 scores 8.1/10, higher than the parent city of Modesto at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.