Within neighborhood
57
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,643 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000305 · Manatee, FL · pop 7,028 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
How risky is Casa Loma in Bayshore Gardens for landlords? Census tract 12081000305 scores 4.5/10, the Moderate tier. It lands near the 24th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
44% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,122 monthly, set against $48,500 in average yearly household income, roughly 28% of income at the averages. About 70% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%
Stable renters 39%
Owners 31%
Tract context
Occupied units2,182
Renter share69.6%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate17.3%
Median income$48,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
83
th percentile
High
Within state
72
th percentile
Elevated
National
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4379, -82.5501 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
17.3% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,122 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
5.0
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 96
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 96%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 88%Racial/ethnic minority
- 95%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 437Total filings over 4 yrs
- 9.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.3%Peak (2015)
- 95Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bayshore Gardens, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Manatee County average of 5.0 and below the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 96th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 437 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 9.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 9.3% of renter households in 2015.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000305
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000305?
Census tract 12081000305 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000305?
Median gross rent is $1,122/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000305?
17.3% of residents in tract 12081000305 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,028.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000305?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 61th, minority 88th, housing 95th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000305 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000305 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12081000305?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 437 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 12081000305 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.69% of renter households, peaking at 9.3% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12081000305 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000305 scores 4.2/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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