Within neighborhood
14
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000313 · Manatee, FL · pop 1,018 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 12081000313 covers part of the Casa Loma area of Manatee County, FL, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. 34% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units566
Renter share37.6%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate17.9%
Median income$36,793
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
National
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4343, -82.5622 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
17.9% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$1,241 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
5.0
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 48%Socioeconomic
- 92%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 21%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
Annualized rent equals 40% of average household income of $36,793, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Adults with no health insurance runs 29.4% against 11.3% nationally.
Pulling hardest the other way is state political climate at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, local political climate reads 1.5/10. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
Cost burden runs 45% here against 53.5% across Manatee County. Against the Manatee County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.
That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.4/10. Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000313
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000313?
Census tract 12081000313 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000313?
Median gross rent is $1,241/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000313?
17.9% of residents in tract 12081000313 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,018.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000313?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 92th, minority 32th, housing 21th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000313 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000313 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 12081000313 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000313 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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