Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Warm Mineral Springs Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 12115002721 · Sarasota, FL · pop 4,970 · 55% of tract blocks fall in Warm Mineral Springs
12115002721 is a census tract in Warm Mineral Springs, FL. It scores 4.6/10 for landlords. Population here is 4,970. The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 18%
Owners 62%
Tract context
Occupied units1,836
Renter share37.9%
SVI overall0.66
Poverty rate17.5%
Median income$54,453
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
86
th percentile
High
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Warm Mineral Springs and the region
Centroid at 27.0621, -82.2658 · click any tract to drill in
Why Warm Mineral Springs scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Warm Mineral Springs
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
17.5% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,425 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Warm Mineral Springs
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Warm Mineral Springs
3.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Warm Mineral Springs
6.5
How Warm Mineral Springs compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 66
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 68%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 32%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 280Total filings over 5 yrs
- 15.39%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.7%Peak (2015)
- 42Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 25% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Warm Mineral Springs
The clearest offset is state political climate at 1.5/10. At $1,425 a month, rents run 28% over what the rest of Warm Mineral Springs commands.
Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.8/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.7/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 280 filings here across 5 tracked years.
It sits 0.8 points above the Sarasota County average of 3.8. The worst year on record was 2015, when 11.7% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 15.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.9/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 51% of renters. Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $54,453. 38% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12115002721
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12115002721?
Census tract 12115002721 in Warm Mineral Springs scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12115002721?
Median gross rent is $1,425/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12115002721?
17.5% of residents in tract 12115002721 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,970.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12115002721?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 66th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 89th, minority 49th, housing 32th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12115002721?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 280 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 12115002721 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.39% of renter households, peaking at 11.7% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
How does tract 12115002721 compare to Warm Mineral Springs overall?
Tract 12115002721 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Warm Mineral Springs at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Warm Mineral Springs; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Warm Mineral Springs
Top eight tracts in Warm Mineral Springs ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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