Mandell Eviction Risk: High , Chicago

The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Housing insecurity runs 35.4% against 14.2% nationally.

The dominant input is local political climate at 8.5/10. 77% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Against the Cook County average of 6.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.1/10.

The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 513 eviction filings across 15 observed years.

At $1,246 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Chicago commands. Filings peaked in 2002 at 9.0% of renter households.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Chicago. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 7.0% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.