Ranch Triangle Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chicago

At $2,397 a month, rents run 66% over what the rest of Chicago commands. The voucher gap is 36.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, supply constraint reads 8.6/10. Disability prevalence runs 15.5% against 31.5% nationally.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. The severe-burden share is 10%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The filing record is not thin: 95 evictions over 15 years of observation. It sits 0.8 points below the Cook County average of 6.1. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 4.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Filings peaked in 2001 at 1.4% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.