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Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Watrous Heights Eviction Risk: Lower , Des Moines

Tract 19153004300 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,570 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 19153004300 covers part of the Watrous Heights area of Des Moines, IA, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 9% Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,811
Renter share12.6%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate3.6%
Median income$85,856

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Watrous Heights
Moderate
Within parent city
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#50 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
Very Low
Within county
4 th percentile
Rank, 4th percentileLowHigh
#108 of 112 tracts In Polk County
Very Low
Within state
34 th percentile
Rank, 34th percentileLowHigh
#590 of 896 tracts In Iowa
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5564, -93.6162 · click any tract to drill in

Why Watrous Heights scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
3.6% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,381 rent vs county FMR
6.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How Watrous Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Watrous Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / state3.0This tracttract 0043003.4Des Moinesparent city3.8Countyavg tract in county3.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 30

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 528Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 11.38%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.7%Peak (2007)
  • 55Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 19153004300
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Watrous Heights

Running cool, economic stress reads 1/10. 31% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Polk County average of 42.0%.

Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Average gross rent is $1,381, 27% above the Des Moines average.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. Court records carry 528 eviction filings across 10 observed years. It sits 0.8 points below the Polk County average of 3.8.

The voucher gap is 13.6%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The worst year on record was 2007, when 15.7% of renter households were served.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 11.4% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 13% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Social vulnerability reads 3.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153004300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004300?

Census tract 19153004300 in the Watrous Heights neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153004300?

Median gross rent is $1,381/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 31% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004300?

3.6% of residents in tract 19153004300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,570.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 55th, minority 30th, housing 35th.
Q5

Is tract 19153004300 considered part of Watrous Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004300 fall within Watrous Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 528 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.38% of renter households, peaking at 15.7% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153004300 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153004300 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153004300 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 19153004300 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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