Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally
South Central DSM Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines
Tract 19153004501 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,062 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
How risky is the South Central DSM area of Des Moines for landlords? Census tract 19153004501 scores 5.3/10, the Moderate tier. It lands near the 50th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 48% of renter households, a severe level, and 22% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $962 monthly, set against $58,563 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 47% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units1,381
Renter share47.1%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate23.4%
Median income$58,563
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
85
th percentile
High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.5445, -93.6113 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Central DSM scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
23.4% poverty · this tract
5.9
Supply constraint
$962 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How South Central DSM compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 84
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 61%Socioeconomic
- 79%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 96%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 2%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 843Total filings over 10 yrs
- 18.79%Avg annual filing rate
- 22.8%Peak (2015)
- 111Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 48% over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 18.8%Housing insecurity
- 12.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 26.8%Food insecurity
- 25.0%SNAP enrollment
- 12.9%Transit barriers
- 13.7%No health insurance
- 21.4%Frequent mental distress
- 36.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Central DSM
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 5.9/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 18.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153004501
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004501?
Census tract 19153004501 in the South Central DSM neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153004501?
Median gross rent is $962/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004501?
23.4% of residents in tract 19153004501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,062.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004501?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 61th, household 79th, minority 61th, housing 96th.
Q5
Is tract 19153004501 considered part of South Central DSM?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004501 fall within South Central DSM (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004501?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 843 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.79% of renter households, peaking at 22.8% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153004501 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153004501 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153004501 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153004501 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
King Irving
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Kirkwood Glen
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Mondamin Presidential
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
19153000101
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Drake Park
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Sherman Hill
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Prospect Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Capitol Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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