Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally

Avon Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines

Tract 19153010806 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,379 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 19153010806 sits in the Avon Lake area of Des Moines eviction risk, IA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.8/10. Population here is 4,379. 30% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 7% Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units1,748
Renter share14.8%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate20.8%
Median income$61,311

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Avon Lake
Moderate
Within parent city
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
High
Within county
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 112 tracts In Polk County
Very High
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#94 of 896 tracts In Iowa
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5304, -93.5142 · click any tract to drill in

Why Avon Lake scores 4.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
20.8% poverty · this tract
5.2
Supply constraint
$1,380 rent vs county FMR
6.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How Avon Lake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Avon Lake risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.8This tracttract 0108063.4Des Moinesparent city3.8Countyavg tract in county3.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Avon Lake

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10.

Average gross rent is $1,380, 27% above the Des Moines average. Cost burden runs 50% here against 42.0% across Polk County.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.3/10. The poverty rate is 21%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

It sits 1.0 points above the Polk County average of 3.8. The voucher gap is 13.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153010806

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153010806?

Census tract 19153010806 in the Avon Lake neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153010806?

Median gross rent is $1,380/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153010806?

20.8% of residents in tract 19153010806 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,379.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153010806?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 86th, minority 45th, housing 53th.
Q5

Is tract 19153010806 considered part of Avon Lake?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153010806 fall within Avon Lake (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 19153010806 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 19153010806 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153010806 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 19153010806 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related