Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally

Avon Lake Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines

Tract 19153010806 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,379 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Avon Lake in Des Moines anchors census tract 19153010806, which lands at 5.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 57% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 50% of renter households, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,380 a month against an average household income of $61,311 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. About 15% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 7% Owners 86%

Tract context

Occupied units1,748

Renter share14.8%

SVI overall0.77

Poverty rate20.8%

Median income$61,311

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5304, -93.5142 · click any tract to drill in

Why Avon Lake scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Des Moines

4.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.8

State political climate

Iowa legislature & governorship

2.3

Economic stress

20.8% poverty · this tract

5.2

Supply constraint

$1,380 rent vs county FMR

6.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Des Moines

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Des Moines

3.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Des Moines

2.5

How Avon Lake compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

82%Socioeconomic
86%Household composition
45%Racial/ethnic minority
53%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.7%Housing insecurity
9.7%Utility-shutoff threat
18.6%Food insecurity
15.8%SNAP enrollment
9.5%Transit barriers
10.8%No health insurance
18.9%Frequent mental distress
30.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Avon Lake

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 6.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 14.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 9.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 77th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153010806

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153010806?

Census tract 19153010806 in the Avon Lake neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 19153010806?

Median gross rent is $1,380/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153010806?

20.8% of residents in tract 19153010806 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,379.

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153010806?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 86th, minority 45th, housing 53th.

Is tract 19153010806 considered part of Avon Lake?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153010806 fall within Avon Lake (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 19153010806 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 19153010806 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153010806 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 19153010806 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.