Neighborhood · Ranked #4,855 of 84,120 nationally

Howardsville Eviction Risk: High , Lochearn

Tract 24005403401 · Baltimore County, MD · pop 3,604 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 24005403401 (the Howardsville neighborhood of Lochearn, Maryland) comes in at 6.9/10, the Elevated tier. On the national scale it ranks #5,629 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 31% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,706 monthly, set against $82,384 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 59% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

High

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 27% Owners 41%

Tract context

Occupied units1,878

Renter share59.3%

SVI overall0.49

Poverty rate9.3%

Median income$82,384

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lochearn and the region

Centroid at 39.3761, -76.7322 · click any tract to drill in

Why Howardsville scores 9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lochearn

6.7

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Maryland legislature & governorship

5.7

Economic stress

9.3% poverty · this tract

2.3

Supply constraint

$1,706 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lochearn

6.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lochearn

6.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lochearn

5.7

How Howardsville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 49

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

22%Socioeconomic
62%Household composition
60%Racial/ethnic minority
71%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
14%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Howardsville. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

11.4%Housing insecurity
7.4%Utility-shutoff threat
13.6%Food insecurity
10.9%SNAP enrollment
7.1%Transit barriers
6.9%No health insurance
13.3%Frequent mental distress
30.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Howardsville

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 6.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lochearn eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Baltimore County average of 6.7 and above the Maryland statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 49th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 11.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 24005403401

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24005403401?

Census tract 24005403401 in the Howardsville neighborhood scores 9/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 24005403401?

Median gross rent is $1,706/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 24005403401?

9.3% of residents in tract 24005403401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,604.

How socially vulnerable is tract 24005403401?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 62th, minority 60th, housing 71th.

Is tract 24005403401 considered part of Howardsville?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24005403401 fall within Howardsville (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 24005403401 struggle to pay rent?

About 11.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 24005403401 compare to Lochearn overall?

Tract 24005403401 scores 9/10, higher than the parent city of Lochearn at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lochearn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 24005403401 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lochearn

Top eight tracts in Lochearn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.