Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Dumbarton Eviction Risk: Elevated , Pikesville

Tract 24005403402 · Baltimore County, MD · pop 5,032 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

With a score of 7.3/10, tract 24005403402 in the Dumbarton area of Pikesville, MD reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 5,032. The severe-burden share is 41%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

7.3

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 16% Owners 67%

Tract context

Occupied units2,395

Renter share32.4%

SVI overall0.87

Poverty rate17.2%

Median income$52,446

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Pikesville and the region

Centroid at 39.3742, -76.7168 · click any tract to drill in

Why Dumbarton scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Pikesville

6.7

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Maryland legislature & governorship

5.7

Economic stress

17.2% poverty · this tract

4.3

Supply constraint

$1,442 rent vs county FMR

2.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Pikesville

6.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Pikesville

6.6

Housing court bias

Inherited from Pikesville

5.7

How Dumbarton compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

78%Socioeconomic
80%Household composition
76%Racial/ethnic minority
87%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

1%Grade A
9%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

18.4%Housing insecurity
11.8%Utility-shutoff threat
22.1%Food insecurity
18.5%SNAP enrollment
10.8%Transit barriers
10.7%No health insurance
16.3%Frequent mental distress
32.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Dumbarton

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 10/10. Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $52,446, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

It sits 1.6 points above the Baltimore County average of 5.7. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.3/10.

At $1,442 a month, rents run 16% under what the rest of Pikesville commands. Cost burden runs 51% here against 46.8% across Baltimore County.

Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 6.9/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

On the national scale it lands near the 87th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.8/10. Statewide the MD average is 5.5, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 24005403402

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24005403402?

Census tract 24005403402 in the Dumbarton neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 24005403402?

Median gross rent is $1,442/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 24005403402?

17.2% of residents in tract 24005403402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,032.

How socially vulnerable is tract 24005403402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 78th, household 80th, minority 76th, housing 87th.

Is tract 24005403402 considered part of Dumbarton?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24005403402 fall within Dumbarton (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 24005403402 struggle to pay rent?

About 18.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 24005403402 compare to Pikesville overall?

Tract 24005403402 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Pikesville at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Pikesville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 24005403402 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Pikesville

Top eight tracts in Pikesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.