Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #17,650 of 84,120 nationally
Aspen Knolls Eviction Risk: Elevated , Aspen Hill
Tract 24031703201 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 8,194 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 6.1/10, tract 24031703201 in the Aspen Knolls area of Aspen Hill, MD reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 8,194 residents. At $3,360 a month, rents run 75% over what the rest of Aspen Hill commands.
Risk score
6.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 84%
Tract context
Occupied units2,250
Renter share16.1%
SVI overall0.22
Poverty rate7.1%
Median income$184,808
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
52
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Aspen Hill and the region
Centroid at 39.0808, -77.0925 · click any tract to drill in
Why Aspen Knolls scores 6.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Aspen Hill
8.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
7.1% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$3,360 rent vs county FMR
9.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aspen Hill
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aspen Hill
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aspen Hill
6.5
How Aspen Knolls compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 22
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 26%Socioeconomic
- 18%Household composition
- 62%Racial/ethnic minority
- 22%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.7%Housing insecurity
- 5.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.6%Food insecurity
- 7.5%SNAP enrollment
- 6.1%Transit barriers
- 10.9%No health insurance
- 12.2%Frequent mental distress
- 23.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Aspen Knolls
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.8/10. The voucher gap is 45.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 9.5/10.
The severe-burden share is 21%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.4/10. Against Montgomery County at 46.7%, 41% of renters here are cost-burdened.
SNAP participation runs 7.5% against 15.2% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 79% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 16% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Social vulnerability reads 2.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Montgomery County average of 6.0 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 24031703201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031703201?
Census tract 24031703201 in the Aspen Knolls neighborhood scores 6.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 24031703201?
Median gross rent is $3,360/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 24031703201?
7.1% of residents in tract 24031703201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,194.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 24031703201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 26th, household 18th, minority 62th, housing 22th.
Q5
Is tract 24031703201 considered part of Aspen Knolls?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031703201 fall within Aspen Knolls (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 24031703201 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 24031703201 compare to Aspen Hill overall?
Tract 24031703201 scores 6.1/10, lower than the parent city of Aspen Hill at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aspen Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Aspen Hill
Top eight tracts in Aspen Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MD
English Manor
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MD
Harmony Hills
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MD
Willson Hills
7.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · MD
Willson Hills
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Aspen Hill Park
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Wheaton Woods
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Sycamore Creek
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Allanwood
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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