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Neighborhood · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally

Harmony Hills Eviction Risk: High , Aspen Hill

Tract 24031703214 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 7,827 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 24031703214 sits in the Harmony Hills area of Aspen Hill eviction risk, MD, carrying an eviction-risk score of 8/10. The severe-burden share is 36%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
8
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 45% Stable renters 30% Owners 25%
Tract context
Occupied units2,637
Renter share74.4%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate17.6%
Median income$66,208

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Harmony Hills
Very High
Within parent city
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 10 tracts In Aspen Hill
High
Within county
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#21 of 232 tracts In Montgomery County
Very High
Within state
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#32 of 1,464 tracts In Maryland
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Aspen Hill and the region

Centroid at 39.0850, -77.0678 · click any tract to drill in

Why Harmony Hills scores 8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Aspen Hill
8.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
17.6% poverty · this tract
4.4
Supply constraint
$1,773 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aspen Hill
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aspen Hill
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aspen Hill
6.5

How Harmony Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Harmony Hills risk score vs. parent city / county / state8.0This tracttract 7032146.6Aspen Hillparent city6.1Countyavg tract in county5.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Harmony Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Harmony Hills

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10. 60% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Montgomery County average of 46.7%.

Against the Montgomery County average of 6.0, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points. 74% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $66,208, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.4/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.2/10.

Adults with no health insurance runs 19.7% against 11.3% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.6/10. Statewide the MD average is 5.5, so this tract runs 2.5 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 24031703214

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031703214?

Census tract 24031703214 in the Harmony Hills neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 24031703214?

Median gross rent is $1,773/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 24031703214?

17.6% of residents in tract 24031703214 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,827.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 24031703214?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 81th, minority 89th, housing 91th.
Q5

Is tract 24031703214 considered part of Harmony Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031703214 fall within Harmony Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 24031703214 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 24031703214 compare to Aspen Hill overall?

Tract 24031703214 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Aspen Hill at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aspen Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Aspen Hill

Top eight tracts in Aspen Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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