Upton Eviction Risk: High , Baltimore

At $434 a month, rents run 67% under what the rest of Baltimore commands. Food insecurity runs 58.9% against 17.8% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 37.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The poverty rate is 58%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, economic stress reads 10/10. 97% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Set annual rent against average income of $13,628 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10.

Against the Baltimore City average of 6.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.