Upton Eviction Risk: High

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 39.3% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 48%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. SNAP participation is 56.9% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

At $786 a month, rents sit 41% under what the rest of Baltimore commands. The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 9.5/10. Severe burden reaches 32%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

Running cool is supply constraint, at 1/10. 78% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. Set annual rent against average household income of $27,327 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

That places it #1 of 157 neighborhoods in Baltimore. Social vulnerability runs high at 9.2/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Its 3 tracts score within 0 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

With little internal variation, 8/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.