Malden Gaming District Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 70% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10.

Average gross rent is $2,413, 22% above the Melrose average. On the softer side, court filing pressure reads 2.5/10. It sits 0.9 points below the Middlesex County average of 6.3.

Food insecurity runs 10.4% against 17.8% nationally. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.4/10. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 45% of renters.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.