The Bleachery Eviction Risk: Elevated , Waltham

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. At $1,537 a month, rents run 32% under what the rest of Waltham commands.

The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. This is renter territory: 66% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Against the Middlesex County average of 6.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. On the softer side, court filing pressure reads 2.5/10. Court records carry 39 eviction filings across 4 observed years.

Filings peaked in 2013 at 1.6% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Newton. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 1.2% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #8,653 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 45% of renters.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.