Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally
Buena Vista Eviction Risk: Moderate , Saginaw
Tract 26145011002 · Saginaw County, MI · pop 3,318 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
The Buena Vista neighborhood of Saginaw is where census tract 26145011002 sits, home to 3,318 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 6.3/10. It lands near the 83rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 25% of renter households, a moderate level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $969 a month against an average household income of $46,497 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 27% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,127
Renter share26.7%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate23.1%
Median income$46,497
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Saginaw and the region
Centroid at 43.4166, -83.8919 · click any tract to drill in
Why Buena Vista scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Saginaw
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Michigan legislature & governorship
3.3
Economic stress
23.1% poverty · this tract
5.8
Supply constraint
$969 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Saginaw
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Saginaw
7.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Saginaw
9.4
How Buena Vista compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 93
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 83%Socioeconomic
- 99%Household composition
- 98%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 22%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Buena Vista. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 37.0%Housing insecurity
- 34.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 54.7%Food insecurity
- 62.7%SNAP enrollment
- 27.2%Transit barriers
- 14.6%No health insurance
- 23.5%Frequent mental distress
- 53.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Buena Vista
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 9.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Saginaw eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Saginaw County average of 6.1 and above the Michigan statewide average of 5.7. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 93rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 26145011002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 26145011002?
Census tract 26145011002 in the Buena Vista neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 26145011002?
Median gross rent is $969/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 26145011002?
23.1% of residents in tract 26145011002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,318.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 26145011002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 99th, minority 98th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 26145011002 considered part of Buena Vista?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 26145011002 fall within Buena Vista (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 26145011002 struggle to pay rent?
About 37.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 34.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 26145011002 compare to Saginaw overall?
Tract 26145011002 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Saginaw at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Saginaw eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 26145011002 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Saginaw
Top eight tracts in Saginaw ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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