Census Tract · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

Buena Vista Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 26145011001 · Saginaw County, MI · pop 1,951

26145011001 is a census tract in Buena Vista, MI. It scores 5.9/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,951. 76% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 4% Owners 54%

Tract context

Occupied units1,066

Renter share46.4%

SVI overall0.88

Poverty rate41.7%

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buena Vista and the region

Centroid at 43.3967, -83.9019 · click any tract to drill in

Why Buena Vista scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buena Vista

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

Michigan legislature & governorship

3.3

Economic stress

41.7% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$631 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buena Vista

9.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buena Vista

7.2

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buena Vista

9.4

How Buena Vista compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

79%Socioeconomic
88%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
80%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
47%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

33.1%Housing insecurity
30.5%Utility-shutoff threat
49.6%Food insecurity
57.0%SNAP enrollment
24.4%Transit barriers
14.1%No health insurance
23.0%Frequent mental distress
49.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Buena Vista

Cost burden runs 91% here against 48.1% across Saginaw County. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10.

Food insecurity runs 49.6% against 17.8% nationally. The poverty rate is 42%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.6/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 9.4/10.

Housing insecurity runs 33.1% against 14.2% nationally. At $631 a month, rents run 30% under what the rest of Buena Vista commands. Against the Saginaw County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Saginaw. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 77% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MI average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points hotter.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 26145011001

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 26145011001?

Census tract 26145011001 in Buena Vista scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 26145011001?

Median gross rent is $631/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 91% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 26145011001?

41.7% of residents in tract 26145011001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,951.

How socially vulnerable is tract 26145011001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 88th, minority 83th, housing 80th.

What share of households in tract 26145011001 struggle to pay rent?

About 33.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 26145011001 compare to Buena Vista overall?

Tract 26145011001 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Buena Vista at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buena Vista; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 26145011001 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buena Vista

Top eight tracts in Buena Vista ranked by composite eviction-risk score.