Census Tract · Ranked #13,119 of 84,120 nationally

Buena Vista Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 26145011001 · Saginaw County, MI · pop 1,951

The Elevated-tier score of 7.4/10 for census tract 26145011001 reflects conditions in Buena Vista, Michigan. It lands near the 98th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 91% of renter households, a severe level, and 76% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is about $631 a month. About 46% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

5.9

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 4% Owners 54%

Tract context

Occupied units1,066

Renter share46.4%

SVI overall0.88

Poverty rate41.7%

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Buena Vista and the region

Centroid at 43.3967, -83.9019 · click any tract to drill in

Why Buena Vista scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Buena Vista

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

Michigan legislature & governorship

3.3

Economic stress

41.7% poverty · this tract

10.0

Supply constraint

$631 rent vs county FMR

1.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from Buena Vista

9.6

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Buena Vista

7.2

Housing court bias

Inherited from Buena Vista

9.4

How Buena Vista compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 88

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

79%Socioeconomic
88%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
80%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
47%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

33.1%Housing insecurity
30.5%Utility-shutoff threat
49.6%Food insecurity
57.0%SNAP enrollment
24.4%Transit barriers
14.1%No health insurance
23.0%Frequent mental distress
49.4%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Buena Vista

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buena Vista, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Saginaw County average of 6.1 and above the Michigan statewide average of 5.7. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 33.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 30.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 26145011001

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 26145011001?

Census tract 26145011001 in Buena Vista scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 26145011001?

Median gross rent is $631/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 91% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 26145011001?

41.7% of residents in tract 26145011001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,951.

How socially vulnerable is tract 26145011001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 88th, minority 83th, housing 80th.

What share of households in tract 26145011001 struggle to pay rent?

About 33.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 30.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 26145011001 compare to Buena Vista overall?

Tract 26145011001 scores 5.9/10, higher than the parent city of Buena Vista at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buena Vista; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 26145011001 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buena Vista

Top eight tracts in Buena Vista ranked by composite eviction-risk score.