Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Chevalle Eviction Risk: Lower , Chaska
Tract 27019090402 · Carver County, MN · pop 6,665 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
27019090402 is a census tract in the Chevalle area of Victoria, MN. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 6,665 residents. Cost burden runs 16% here against 38.4% across Carver County.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units2,438
Renter share10.9%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate2.9%
Median income$161,173
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
18
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chaska and the region
Centroid at 44.8562, -93.6565 · click any tract to drill in
Why Chevalle scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chaska
5.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.8
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
2.9% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,290 rent vs county FMR
8.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chaska
2.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chaska
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chaska
2.5
How Chevalle compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 6
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 5%Socioeconomic
- 16%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 15%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Chevalle. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.7%Housing insecurity
- 3.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.1%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.4%Transit barriers
- 4.2%No health insurance
- 12.6%Frequent mental distress
- 20.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Chevalle
The voucher gap is 35.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. On the high side, supply constraint reads 8.6/10.
Food insecurity runs 6.1% against 17.8% nationally. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2.5/10. Housing insecurity runs 5.7% against 14.2% nationally.
It sits 0.9 points below the Carver County average of 3.9. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Against average income of $161,173, annual rent is just 17%.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27019090402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27019090402?
Census tract 27019090402 in the Chevalle neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27019090402?
Median gross rent is $2,290/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 16% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27019090402?
2.9% of residents in tract 27019090402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,665.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27019090402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 5th, household 16th, minority 32th, housing 15th.
Q5
Is tract 27019090402 considered part of Chevalle?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27019090402 fall within Chevalle (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 27019090402 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 27019090402 compare to Chaska overall?
Tract 27019090402 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Chaska at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chaska eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chaska
Top eight tracts in Chaska ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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