Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #65,414 of 84,120 nationally
Crystal Bay Eviction Risk: Lower , Orono
Tract 27053027205 · Hennepin County, MN · pop 3,627 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
27053027205 is a census tract in the Crystal Bay area of Orono, MN. It scores 3.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,627. The severe-burden share is 46%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units1,138
Renter share14.9%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate10.1%
Median income$225,337
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
23
th percentile
Low
Within state
22
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Orono and the region
Centroid at 44.9657, -93.5655 · click any tract to drill in
Why Crystal Bay scores 3.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Orono
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.2
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
10.1% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$1,569 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Orono
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Orono
2.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Orono
5.9
How Crystal Bay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 4%Socioeconomic
- 53%Household composition
- 35%Racial/ethnic minority
- 18%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 7Total filings 2020-21
- 0.1Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.62×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.4%Housing insecurity
- 3.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.0%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.3%Transit barriers
- 4.4%No health insurance
- 12.0%Frequent mental distress
- 22.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Crystal Bay
Against the Hennepin County average of 5.1, this tract reads safer for landlords by 2.0 points. What pushes it up most is rent-regulation exposure at 8.2/10.
Running cool, economic stress reads 2.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Housing insecurity runs 5.4% against 14.2% nationally.
At $1,569 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Orono commands. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
That is riskier than roughly 22% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 15% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.1/10. Rent consumes only 8% of average household income of $225,337, an unusually wide affordability cushion.
Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 1.4 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27053027205
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27053027205?
Census tract 27053027205 in the Crystal Bay neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27053027205?
Median gross rent is $1,569/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27053027205?
10.1% of residents in tract 27053027205 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,627.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27053027205?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 4th, household 53th, minority 35th, housing 18th.
Q5
Is tract 27053027205 considered part of Crystal Bay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27053027205 fall within Crystal Bay (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27053027205 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.62× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27053027205 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27053027205 compare to Orono overall?
Tract 27053027205 scores 3.1/10, lower than the parent city of Orono at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Orono; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Orono
Top eight tracts in Orono ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related