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Neighborhood · Ranked #7,836 of 84,120 nationally

Prospect Park Eviction Risk: High , Minneapolis

Tract 27053104902 · Hennepin County, MN · pop 4,714 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 27053104902 covers part of the Prospect Park area of Minneapolis, MN, and scores 8/10 on landlord eviction risk. 63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Hennepin County average of 43.1%.

Risk score
8
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 58% Stable renters 35% Owners 7%
Tract context
Occupied units1,975
Renter share92.6%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate49.7%
Median income$33,775

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Prospect Park
Very High
Within parent city
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#34 of 121 tracts In Minneapolis
Elevated
Within county
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 329 tracts In Hennepin County
Very High
Within state
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Minneapolis and the region

Centroid at 44.9694, -93.2218 · click any tract to drill in

Why Prospect Park scores 8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Minneapolis
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.2
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
49.7% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$1,288 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Minneapolis
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Minneapolis
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Minneapolis
7.0

How Prospect Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Prospect Park risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 8.08.0This tracttract 104902Minneapolis: 6.66.6Minneapolisparent cityCounty: 5.15.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.54.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 72

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 228Total filings 2020-21
  • 3.0Avg monthly (observed)
  • 2.0Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 1.48×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline2020-01-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-02-01: 6 filings (2.67× baseline)2020-03-01: 2 filings (0.64× baseline)2020-04-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-05-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-06-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-07-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-08-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-09-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-10-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2020-11-01: 1 filings (0.38× baseline)2020-12-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-01-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-02-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-03-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-04-01: 1 filings (0.62× baseline)2021-05-01: 1 filings (0.67× baseline)2021-06-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-07-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-08-01: 1 filings (0.80× baseline)2021-09-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-10-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-11-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2021-12-01: 2 filings (0.57× baseline)2022-01-01: 1 filings (0.50× baseline)2022-02-01: 1 filings (0.44× baseline)2022-03-01: 3 filings (0.96× baseline)2022-04-01: 6 filings (3.70× baseline)2022-05-01: 5 filings (3.33× baseline)2022-06-01: 2 filings (0.76× baseline)2022-07-01: 6 filings (3.00× baseline)2022-08-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2022-09-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2022-10-01: 1 filings (0.57× baseline)2022-11-01: 2 filings (0.76× baseline)2022-12-01: 5 filings (1.43× baseline)2023-01-01: 4 filings (2.00× baseline)2023-02-01: 10 filings (4.44× baseline)2023-03-01: 2 filings (0.64× baseline)2023-04-01: 1 filings (0.62× baseline)2023-05-01: 3 filings (2.00× baseline)2023-06-01: 4 filings (1.53× baseline)2023-07-01: 1 filings (0.50× baseline)2023-08-01: 3 filings (2.40× baseline)2023-09-01: 2 filings (1.45× baseline)2023-10-01: 5 filings (2.86× baseline)2023-11-01: 6 filings (2.29× baseline)2023-12-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2024-01-01: 4 filings (2.00× baseline)2024-02-01: 5 filings (2.22× baseline)2024-03-01: 1 filings (0.32× baseline)2024-04-01: 3 filings (1.85× baseline)2024-05-01: 2 filings (1.33× baseline)2024-06-01: 3 filings (1.15× baseline)2024-07-01: 2 filings (1.00× baseline)2024-08-01: 6 filings (4.80× baseline)2024-09-01: 2 filings (1.45× baseline)2024-10-01: 4 filings (2.29× baseline)2024-11-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2024-12-01: 5 filings (1.43× baseline)2025-01-01: 9 filings (4.50× baseline)2025-02-01: 10 filings (4.44× baseline)2025-03-01: 6 filings (1.92× baseline)2025-04-01: 6 filings (3.70× baseline)2025-05-01: 4 filings (2.67× baseline)2025-06-01: 10 filings (3.82× baseline)2025-07-01: 7 filings (3.50× baseline)2025-08-01: 0 filings (0.00× baseline)2025-09-01: 3 filings (2.17× baseline)2025-10-01: 4 filings (2.29× baseline)2025-11-01: 12 filings (4.58× baseline)2025-12-01: 9 filings (2.57× baseline)2026-01-01: 4 filings (40.00× baseline)2026-02-01: 8 filings (80.00× baseline)2026-03-01: 5 filings (50.00× baseline)2026-04-01: 6 filings (60.00× baseline)2026-05-01: 1 filings (10.00× baseline)

Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Prospect Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Prospect Park

Severe burden reaches 37%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. Against the Hennepin County average of 5.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.9 points.

The poverty rate is 50%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Set annual rent against average income of $33,775 and the ratio lands at 46%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. 93% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

On the high side, local political climate reads 9/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. Food insecurity runs 29.0% against 17.8% nationally.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 91st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 27053104902

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27053104902?

Census tract 27053104902 in the Prospect Park neighborhood scores 8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27053104902?

Median gross rent is $1,288/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27053104902?

49.7% of residents in tract 27053104902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,714.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27053104902?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 6th, minority 69th, housing 92th.
Q5

Is tract 27053104902 considered part of Prospect Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27053104902 fall within Prospect Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

Did eviction filings in tract 27053104902 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 1.48× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7

What share of households in tract 27053104902 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 27053104902 compare to Minneapolis overall?

Tract 27053104902 scores 8/10, higher than the parent city of Minneapolis at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Minneapolis eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 27053104902 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 12% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Minneapolis

Top eight tracts in Minneapolis ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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