Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally

Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

Tract 27123031500 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 3,145 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Census tract 27123031500 covers part of the Payne - Phalen area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 7.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,145 residents. Severe burden reaches 45%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score

7.9

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 19% Owners 45%

Tract context

Occupied units984

Renter share55.1%

SVI overall0.87

Poverty rate24.7%

Median income$50,110

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across St. Paul and the region

Centroid at 44.9669, -93.0756 · click any tract to drill in

Why Payne - Phalen scores 7.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from St. Paul

9.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.3

State political climate

Minnesota legislature & governorship

4.3

Economic stress

24.7% poverty · this tract

6.2

Supply constraint

$1,019 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from St. Paul

7.5

How Payne - Phalen compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

87%Socioeconomic
85%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
63%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
25%Grade C
75%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

370Total filings over 7 yrs
11.21%Avg annual filing rate
13.7%Peak (2012)
53Filings in 2015 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2009 to 2015

Filings dropped 17% over the past 7 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

254Total filings 2020-21
3.3Avg monthly (observed)
3.0Pre-pandemic baseline
1.09×Ratio to baseline

Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01

Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Payne - Phalen. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

21.7%Housing insecurity
13.3%Utility-shutoff threat
32.7%Food insecurity
24.2%SNAP enrollment
16.8%Transit barriers
14.5%No health insurance
19.4%Frequent mental distress
34.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Payne - Phalen

Cost burden runs roughly two in three here against 47.3% across Ramsey County. The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10.

Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.

The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. At $1,019 a month, rents run 20% under what the rest of St. Paul commands.

SNAP participation runs 24.2% against 15.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 370 evictions over 7 years of observation. Housing insecurity runs 21.7% against 14.2% nationally.

Filings peaked in 2012 at 13.7% of renter households.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 27123031500

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031500?

Census tract 27123031500 in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 27123031500?

Median gross rent is $1,019/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031500?

24.7% of residents in tract 27123031500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,145.

How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031500?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 85th, minority 83th, housing 63th.

Is tract 27123031500 considered part of Payne - Phalen?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031500 fall within Payne - Phalen (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031500?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 370 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.21% of renter households, peaking at 13.7% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

Did eviction filings in tract 27123031500 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 1.09× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.

What share of households in tract 27123031500 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 27123031500 compare to St. Paul overall?

Tract 27123031500 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Q10

Was tract 27123031500 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 75% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul

Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org