Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally
Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123031500 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 3,145 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
In the Payne - Phalen neighborhood of St. Paul, census tract 27123031500 scores 6.8/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #6,983 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 65% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 45% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,019 a month against an average household income of $50,110 a year, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 55% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 45%
Tract context
Occupied units984
Renter share55.1%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate24.7%
Median income$50,110
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
85
th percentile
High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9669, -93.0756 · click any tract to drill in
Why Payne - Phalen scores 6.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
24.7% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$1,019 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Payne - Phalen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 87%Socioeconomic
- 85%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 25%Grade C
- 75%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 370Total filings over 7 yrs
- 11.21%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.7%Peak (2012)
- 53Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 17% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 254Total filings 2020-21
- 3.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.0Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.09×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Payne - Phalen. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.7%Housing insecurity
- 13.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.7%Food insecurity
- 24.2%SNAP enrollment
- 16.8%Transit barriers
- 14.5%No health insurance
- 19.4%Frequent mental distress
- 34.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Payne - Phalen
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 75% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.
The tract is Asian and White and ranks around the 87th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123031500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031500?
Census tract 27123031500 in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123031500?
Median gross rent is $1,019/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031500?
24.7% of residents in tract 27123031500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,145.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 85th, minority 83th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 27123031500 considered part of Payne - Phalen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031500 fall within Payne - Phalen (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 370 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.21% of renter households, peaking at 13.7% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123031500 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.09× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123031500 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123031500 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123031500 scores 6.3/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123031500 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 75% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Eastview
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Related