7 census tracts · pop 30,318 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.3/10
· range 6.1–7.9
Payne - Phalen takes in 7 census tracts of St. Paul, MN, population 30,318. The Eviction Risk Score is 7.3/10, in the Elevated tier. Cost burden runs roughly one in two against 30.0% citywide, putting Payne - Phalen 19.4% over its own city.
Severe burden reaches 27%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The strongest single driver of the headline number is rent-regulation exposure at 8.5/10.
On the high side is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. The 7 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 6.1 to 7.9, a 1.8-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address.
The poverty rate is 23%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.4/10. Court records carry 2,161 eviction filings across its 7 observed tracts.
Food insecurity affects 28.7% of adults, 10.9 points above the national rate. Filing activity peaked in 2012 at 23.0% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 6.9% in 2015, is well off that peak.
That places it #9 of 23 neighborhoods in St. Paul. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
Average gross rent runs $1,244, close to the St. Paul average.
For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 7.3 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
7 tracts · population-weighted
Payne - Phalen vs St. PaulHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority81%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport72%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Payne - Phalen
Aggregated across 7 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
2,161Total filings (sum)
7.78%Avg annual filing rate
23.0%Peak year (2012)
6.49%Latest filed (2015)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
1,292Total filings 2020-21
2.5Avg monthly observed
2.6Pre-pandemic baseline
0.94×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Payne - Phalen
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
19.1%Housing insecurity
11.5%Utility shutoff threat
29.3%Food insecurity
21.1%SNAP enrollment
13.3%No health insurance
32.9%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Payne - Phalen
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Payne - Phalen?
Payne - Phalen scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier) across 7 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Payne - Phalen compare to St. Paul overall?
Payne - Phalen scores 0.8 points higher than St. Paul overall (6.5/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,244 vs $1,281.
Q3
What is the average rent in Payne - Phalen?
Average gross rent in Payne - Phalen is $1,244/month (pop-weighted across 7 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Payne - Phalen residents are renters?
41% of Payne - Phalen households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in St. Paul). The neighborhood has 30,318 residents.
Q5
Is Payne - Phalen a high social-vulnerability area?
Payne - Phalen sits in the 84th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Payne - Phalen have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Payne - Phalen is census tract 27123030601 (score 7.9/10). Across the 7 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.1 to 7.9, a spread of 1.8 points.
Q7
How safe is Payne - Phalen for landlords?
Payne - Phalen carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.3/10). Pop-weighted across 7 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Paul as a whole (6.5/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Payne - Phalen?
Payne - Phalen has 29,177 residents. Top groups: Asian (non-Hispanic) (46.2%), White (non-Hispanic) (26.6%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
