Neighborhood · St. Paul, MN

Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Moderate

7 census tracts · pop 30,318 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.8/10 · range 4.5–7

Payne - Phalen is a asian-white neighborhood in St. Paul with 7 census tracts and a population of 30,318 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 5.8/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 49% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 27% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,244/month sits 3% lower than the St. Paul citywide average ($1,281).

Risk score

5.8

Moderate

7 tracts · population-weighted

Payne - Phalen vs St. Paul How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

49.4% +65%

St. Paul: 30.0%

Average gross rent

$1,244 -3%

St. Paul: $1,281

Average HH income

$64,233 -16%

St. Paul: $76,411

Poverty rate

22.9% +45%

St. Paul: 15.8%

Renter share

40.7% -14%

St. Paul: 47.1%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Payne - Phalen and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 7 tracts span score 4.5–7

Why Payne - Phalen scores 5.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts

4.3

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts

7.3

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 9.0–9.0 across tracts

9.0

Rent control risk

49% of income on rent · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

41% renter households · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts

8.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts

7.5

Economic stress

22.9% below poverty line · Range 1.4–10.0 across tracts

5.6

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–3.7 across tracts

2.4

Risk score comparison

Payne - Phalen vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Payne - Phalen?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2.5 points from 4.5 to 7. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

7.0 6.4 6.3 6.3 5.0 4.8 4.5

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

7 tracts in Payne - Phalen

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
27123030601	7	5,874	55%	$1,267
27123031600	6.4	4,251	51%	$1,193
27123031000	6.3	4,434	49%	$1,298
27123031500	6.3	3,145	65%	$1,019
27123030900	5	4,291	33%	$1,460
27123030602	4.8	4,205	43%	$1,074
27123031100	4.5	4,118	52%	$1,328

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 84

Pop-weighted across 7 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 78%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 80%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 81%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 72%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Payne - Phalen

Aggregated across 7 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

2,161Total filings (sum)
7.78%Avg annual filing rate
23.0%Peak year (2012)
6.49%Latest filed (2015)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

1,292Total filings 2020-21
2.5Avg monthly observed
2.6Pre-pandemic baseline
0.94×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Payne - Phalen

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

19.1%Housing insecurity
11.5%Utility shutoff threat
29.3%Food insecurity
21.1%SNAP enrollment
13.3%No health insurance
32.9%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Payne - Phalen

What is the eviction-risk score for Payne - Phalen?

Payne - Phalen scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 7 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Payne - Phalen compare to St. Paul overall?

Payne - Phalen scores 0.8 points lower than St. Paul overall (6.6/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,244 vs $1,281.

What is the average rent in Payne - Phalen?

Average gross rent in Payne - Phalen is $1,244/month (pop-weighted across 7 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Payne - Phalen residents are renters?

41% of Payne - Phalen households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in St. Paul). The neighborhood has 30,318 residents.

Is Payne - Phalen a high social-vulnerability area?

Payne - Phalen sits in the 84th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Payne - Phalen have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Payne - Phalen is census tract 27123030601 (score 7/10). Across the 7 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.5 to 7, a spread of 2.5 points.

How safe is Payne - Phalen for landlords?

Payne - Phalen carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.8/10). Pop-weighted across 7 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Paul as a whole (6.6/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Payne - Phalen?

Payne - Phalen has 29,177 residents (Asian-White Neighborhood). Top groups: Asian (non-Hispanic) (46.2%), White (non-Hispanic) (26.6%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Payne - Phalen

5.6 Dayton's Bluff 2 tracts · pop 4,128 5.3 Eastview 7 tracts · pop 33,628 5.4 Downtown 3 tracts · pop 8,009 5.2 North End 5 tracts · pop 22,384 5 Greater East Side 2 tracts · pop 10,678 3.5 Sherwood Park Neighborhood 5 tracts · pop 24,979

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside St. Paul

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Payne - Phalen.

5.8 Rondo 16 tracts · pop 41,160 5.8 South Saint Anthony Park 2 tracts · pop 5,910 6 Highland 2 tracts · pop 5,837 5.6 North End 5 tracts · pop 22,384 5.5 Dayton's Bluff 2 tracts · pop 4,128 5.4 Eastview 7 tracts · pop 33,628

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