Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

The poverty rate is 43%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. The severe-burden share is 29%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points.

Running hot, local political climate reads 9/10. Annualized rent equals 37% of average household income of $41,646, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

SNAP participation runs 33.1% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.

55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Ramsey County average of 47.3%. Housing insecurity runs 25.1% against 14.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 354 filings here across 7 tracked years.

The worst year on record was 2009, when 7.1% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 4.5% of renter households face a filing.

On the national scale it lands near the 90th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.