Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally
Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123031600 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,251 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
27123031600 is a census tract in the Payne - Phalen area of St. Paul, MN. It scores 7.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,251 residents. The severe-burden share is 48%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units1,400
Renter share46.6%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate27.1%
Median income$58,022
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
79
th percentile
High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9704, -93.0574 · click any tract to drill in
Why Payne - Phalen scores 7.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
27.1% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$1,193 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Payne - Phalen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 82%Socioeconomic
- 95%Household composition
- 85%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 64%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 19%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 360Total filings over 7 yrs
- 8.03%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.4%Peak (2009)
- 44Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 37% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 176Total filings 2020-21
- 2.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.7Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.85×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Payne - Phalen. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.0%Housing insecurity
- 11.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 31.1%Food insecurity
- 21.7%SNAP enrollment
- 15.6%Transit barriers
- 14.4%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 33.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Payne - Phalen
The score leans hardest on local political climate at 9/10. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Food insecurity runs 31.1% against 17.8% nationally.
The filing record is not thin: 360 evictions over 7 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2009 at 13.4% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 8.0% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #8,653 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123031600
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031600?
Census tract 27123031600 in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123031600?
Median gross rent is $1,193/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031600?
27.1% of residents in tract 27123031600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,251.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031600?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 95th, minority 85th, housing 90th.
Q5
Is tract 27123031600 considered part of Payne - Phalen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031600 fall within Payne - Phalen (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031600?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 360 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.03% of renter households, peaking at 13.4% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123031600 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.85× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123031600 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123031600 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123031600 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123031600 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 19% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related