Neighborhood · Ranked #8,138 of 84,120 nationally

Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

Tract 27123031600 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,251 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 27123031600 covers Payne - Phalen in St. Paul, home to 4,251 residents. For landlords it grades 6.9/10, an elevated reading. That is riskier than about 93% of US census tracts.

51% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 48% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,193 monthly, set against $58,022 in average yearly household income, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 47% of occupied homes.

Risk score

6.4

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 24% Stable renters 23% Owners 53%

Tract context

Occupied units1,400

Renter share46.6%

SVI overall0.94

Poverty rate27.1%

Median income$58,022

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across St. Paul and the region

Centroid at 44.9704, -93.0574 · click any tract to drill in

Why Payne - Phalen scores 6.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from St. Paul

9.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.3

State political climate

Minnesota legislature & governorship

4.3

Economic stress

27.1% poverty · this tract

6.8

Supply constraint

$1,193 rent vs county FMR

2.1

Rent control risk

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from St. Paul

7.5

How Payne - Phalen compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 94

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

82%Socioeconomic
95%Household composition
85%Racial/ethnic minority
90%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
64%Grade B
0%Grade C
19%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

360Total filings over 7 yrs
8.03%Avg annual filing rate
13.4%Peak (2009)
44Filings in 2015 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2009 to 2015

Filings dropped 37% over the past 7 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

176Total filings 2020-21
2.3Avg monthly (observed)
2.7Pre-pandemic baseline
0.85×Ratio to baseline

Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Payne - Phalen. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.0%Housing insecurity
11.8%Utility-shutoff threat
31.1%Food insecurity
21.7%SNAP enrollment
15.6%Transit barriers
14.4%No health insurance
19.1%Frequent mental distress
33.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Payne - Phalen

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 19% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was B ("Still Desirable"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 360 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 8.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 13.4% of renter households in 2009.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 27123031600

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031600?

Census tract 27123031600 in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 27123031600?

Median gross rent is $1,193/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031600?

27.1% of residents in tract 27123031600 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,251.

How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031600?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 95th, minority 85th, housing 90th.

Is tract 27123031600 considered part of Payne - Phalen?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031600 fall within Payne - Phalen (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031600?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 360 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031600 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.03% of renter households, peaking at 13.4% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

Did eviction filings in tract 27123031600 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.85× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.

What share of households in tract 27123031600 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 27123031600 compare to St. Paul overall?

Tract 27123031600 scores 6.4/10, right in line with the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Q10

Was tract 27123031600 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 19% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul

Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org