Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,043 of 84,120 nationally
Downtown Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123034201 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 3,638 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 7.8/10, tract 27123034201 in the Downtown area of St. Paul, MN reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,638. 92% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Risk score
7.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 46%
Owners 8%
Tract context
Occupied units2,392
Renter share92.3%
SVI overall0.56
Poverty rate19.3%
Median income$62,917
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
82
th percentile
High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9467, -93.0910 · click any tract to drill in
Why Downtown scores 7.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
19.3% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$1,577 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Downtown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 56
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 59%Socioeconomic
- 4%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 91%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 229Total filings over 7 yrs
- 2.57%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.1%Peak (2012)
- 31Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 797Total filings 2020-21
- 10.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 2.90×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Downtown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.1%Housing insecurity
- 7.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.2%Food insecurity
- 10.9%SNAP enrollment
- 9.7%Transit barriers
- 7.5%No health insurance
- 18.2%Frequent mental distress
- 26.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Downtown
The score leans hardest on local political climate at 9/10. Severe burden reaches 26%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
It sits 2.2 points above the Ramsey County average of 5.6. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.
Average gross rent is $1,577, 23% above the St. Paul average. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 229 filings here across 7 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2012, when 4.1% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 2.6% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #9,043 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6/10. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 3.3 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123034201
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123034201?
Census tract 27123034201 in the Downtown neighborhood scores 7.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123034201?
Median gross rent is $1,577/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123034201?
19.3% of residents in tract 27123034201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,638.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123034201?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 56th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 4th, minority 49th, housing 91th.
Q5
Is tract 27123034201 considered part of Downtown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123034201 fall within Downtown (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123034201?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 229 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123034201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.57% of renter households, peaking at 4.1% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123034201 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 2.90× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123034201 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123034201 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123034201 scores 7.8/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123034201 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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