Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Downtown Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123034203 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,259 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
For landlords sizing up the Downtown area of St. Paul, census tract 27123034203 carries an elevated eviction-risk score of 6.4/10. That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,487 monthly, set against $74,299 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. About 70% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 30%
Tract context
Occupied units1,883
Renter share70.4%
SVI overall0.26
Poverty rate7.6%
Median income$74,299
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
30
th percentile
Low
Within county
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
75
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9516, -93.0899 · click any tract to drill in
Why Downtown scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
7.6% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,487 rent vs county FMR
3.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Downtown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 26
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 39%Socioeconomic
- 6%Household composition
- 35%Racial/ethnic minority
- 49%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 9%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 303Total filings 2020-21
- 3.9Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.0Pre-pandemic baseline
- 2.01×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Downtown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 8.2%Housing insecurity
- 5.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.2%Food insecurity
- 5.6%SNAP enrollment
- 6.5%Transit barriers
- 5.0%No health insurance
- 14.9%Frequent mental distress
- 21.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Downtown
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 2.01x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, above pre-pandemic levels.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 26th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123034203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123034203?
Census tract 27123034203 in the Downtown neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123034203?
Median gross rent is $1,487/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123034203?
7.6% of residents in tract 27123034203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,259.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123034203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 26th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 6th, minority 35th, housing 49th.
Q5
Is tract 27123034203 considered part of Downtown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123034203 fall within Downtown (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27123034203 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 2.01× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27123034203 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27123034203 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123034203 scores 4.7/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 27123034203 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 9% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Eastview
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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