Neighborhood · St. Paul, MN

Downtown Eviction Risk: Elevated

3 census tracts · pop 8,009 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 7.4/10 · range 6.3–7.8

Downtown takes in 3 census tracts of St. Paul, MN, population 8,009. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 7.4/10, in the Elevated tier. 51% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well clear of the St. Paul rate of 30.0%.

What pushes the score up most is rent-regulation exposure at 8.5/10. This is a renter market: 74% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Severe burden reaches 23%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 6.3 to 7.8, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Court records carry 465 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts.

On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10. The poverty rate is 18%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

At $1,451 a month, rents sit 13% over what the rest of St. Paul commands. Filing activity peaked in 2012 at 11.9% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 5.0% in 2015, is well off that peak.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.5 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score

7.4

Elevated

3 tracts · population-weighted

Downtown vs St. Paul How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

50.6% +69%

St. Paul: 30.0%

Average gross rent

$1,451 +13%

St. Paul: $1,281

Average HH income

$71,879 -6%

St. Paul: $76,411

Poverty rate

17.9% +14%

St. Paul: 15.8%

Renter share

73.9% +57%

St. Paul: 47.1%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Downtown and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 3 tracts span score 6.3–7.8

Why Downtown scores 7.4

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts

4.3

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts

7.3

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 9.0–9.0 across tracts

9.0

Rent control risk

51% of income on rent · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

74% renter households · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts

8.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts

7.5

Economic stress

17.9% below poverty line · Range 1.9–6.6 across tracts

4.5

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.1–4.4 across tracts

3.6

Risk score comparison

Downtown vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Downtown?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1.5 points from 6.3 to 7.8. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

7.8 7.8 6.3

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

3 tracts in Downtown

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
27123034201	7.8	3,638	50%	$1,577
27123033000	7.8	2,112	47%	$1,196
27123034203	6.3	2,259	54%	$1,487

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 58

Pop-weighted across 3 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 59%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 29%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 52%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 81%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Downtown

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

465Total filings (sum)
5.26%Avg annual filing rate
11.9%Peak year (2012)
4.35%Latest filed (2015)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

1,211Total filings 2020-21
6.2Avg monthly observed
2.8Pre-pandemic baseline
2.06×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Downtown

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

13.2%Housing insecurity
8.3%Utility shutoff threat
17.1%Food insecurity
12.0%SNAP enrollment
8.3%No health insurance
26.7%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Downtown

What is the eviction-risk score for Downtown?

Downtown scores 7.4/10 (Elevated tier) across 3 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Downtown compare to St. Paul overall?

Downtown scores 0.9 points higher than St. Paul overall (6.5/10). Renters spend 51% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,451 vs $1,281.

What is the average rent in Downtown?

Average gross rent in Downtown is $1,451/month (pop-weighted across 3 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Downtown residents are renters?

74% of Downtown households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in St. Paul). The neighborhood has 8,009 residents.

Is Downtown a high social-vulnerability area?

Downtown sits in the 58th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Downtown have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Downtown is census tract 27123034201 (score 7.8/10). Across the 3 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.3 to 7.8, a spread of 1.5 points.

How safe is Downtown for landlords?

Downtown carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (7.4/10). Pop-weighted across 3 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Paul as a whole (6.5/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Downtown?

Downtown has 8,283 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (60.3%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (16.4%), Black (non-Hispanic) (11.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Downtown

7.4 Rondo 16 tracts · pop 41,160 7.5 Dayton's Bluff 2 tracts · pop 4,128 7.3 Payne - Phalen 7 tracts · pop 30,318 6.6 North End 5 tracts · pop 22,384 7.1 West Side 2 tracts · pop 10,675 7 Eastview 7 tracts · pop 33,628

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside St. Paul

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Downtown.

7.4 Rondo 16 tracts · pop 41,160 7.5 Dayton's Bluff 2 tracts · pop 4,128 7.3 Payne - Phalen 7 tracts · pop 30,318 7.6 South Saint Anthony Park 2 tracts · pop 5,910 7.6 Highland 2 tracts · pop 5,837 7.1 North End 5 tracts · pop 22,384

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