Within neighborhood
40
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #9,433 of 84,120 nationally
Rondo Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123034204 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,457 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 27123034204 covers part of the Rondo area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 7.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,457. What pushes it up most is local political climate at 9/10.
Risk score
7.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units1,570
Renter share56.7%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate18.6%
Median income$59,313
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
69
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
82
th percentile
High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9497, -93.0978 · click any tract to drill in
Why Rondo scores 7.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
18.6% poverty · this tract
4.6
Supply constraint
$1,233 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Rondo compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 42%Socioeconomic
- 30%Household composition
- 43%Racial/ethnic minority
- 96%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 15%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 285Total filings 2020-21
- 3.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 2.55×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Rondo. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.0%Housing insecurity
- 8.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.5%Food insecurity
- 11.1%SNAP enrollment
- 9.0%Transit barriers
- 7.7%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 28.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Rondo
Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.1 points. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.
The severe-burden share is 20%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.
This ground was mapped D ("Hazardous") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 89% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 6.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 3.2 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
48% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent. Average gross rent is $1,233, close to the St. Paul average.
Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $59,313.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123034204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123034204?
Census tract 27123034204 in the Rondo neighborhood scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123034204?
Median gross rent is $1,233/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 48% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123034204?
18.6% of residents in tract 27123034204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,457.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123034204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 42th, household 30th, minority 43th, housing 96th.
Q5
Is tract 27123034204 considered part of Rondo?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123034204 fall within Rondo (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27123034204 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 2.55× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27123034204 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27123034204 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123034204 scores 7.7/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 27123034204 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 15% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
North End
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Eastview
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
South Saint Anthony Park
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Rondo
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
7.9
/ 10 · High
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